IS AVCHD Doomed Before It Starts?

So the big news of the day is the announcement of a new high definition DVD format for camcorders. The new format (called AVCHD) was developed by Sony and Matsushita (who own the Panasonic brand) and uses standard 8-cm DVD discs, storing the heavily compressed video using the H.264 compression standard. This allows for around 20 minutes of video on a disc –even less than the current standard definition camcorders. And, somewhat confusingly, Panasonic separately announced that they are working on technology for devices that will use the AVCHD standard, but which record to SD Cards instead of DVD. Even more mysteriously, Panasonic seemed to be criticizing the choice of DVD as a media in their release saying that “SD Memory Card is the recording media best suited for video cameras”.

 

I don’t think that AVCD is going to be a success for two reasons: compatibility and technology.

 

Firstly, the new format won’t be compatible with existing DVD players or HD-DVD players (Blu-ray players will be able to play the discs, though, according to this interview with Panasonic). The only ways to view the video will be through the camcorder itself or using as yet unreleased software on a PC, neither of which are ideal. People buy DVD camcorders because they can play them back on their standard set-top DVD players, and that won’t happen with AVCHD camcorders.

 

And it’s a stop-gap measure. The reason the format has been developed is because it’s going to take manufacturers some time to get Blu-ray drives small enough to fit into a consumer DVD camcorder. The technology is there – it’s just not small enough yet. As soon as they shrink it down, the AVCHD format will be dropped like a hot potato for the new Blu-ray camcorders, which will be able to fit more video onto the discs and will be compatiable with Blu-ray set-top players. That will leave the AVCD format on the same slagheap of history that MicroMV camcorders and Minidisc players are forlornly perched upon…

 

UPDATE: There’s an interesting discussion going on on DVInfo about the announcement, and some people seem more enthusiastic about it than me. One poster claims that it’s “ going to blow the doors off of hdv”. I think he’s being somewhat optimistic in saying that…