2003 Camcorder Predictions

by Robin Liss

Published on Nov 27, 2002 12:00 AM
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These are my predictions for new camcorders in the next year. Most of this is speculation and previous industry trends, although some of it is based on very very small rumors. I've also included my hopes for 2003, although I don't know if my wishes will actually come true.

Hi-Definition Camcorder for Consumers - Panasonic displayed the most inexpensive high definition recording camcorder yet at CEATEC in Japan. It sounds like they are likely to bring this camcorder to the market next year however it looks like its aimed more at the prosumer market. Constantly dropping prices on HDTV televisions means that more and more consumers are going to be purchasing the TVs - and thus the market will become more ready for a consumer HD camcorder I believe that some manufacturer will come out with a high definition consumer camcorder priced below $2500. I don't know what media the camcorder will record on - but my guess will be DVD or a modified MiniDV tape like the Panasonic that was announced in Japan.

Sony comes out with a Memory Stick only camcorder - Sony really wants to push their Memory Stick format. Virtually all of their digital still cameras record video and almost all of the digital camcorder models can record 30 frames per second of pretty good quality MPEG video. Both in an effort to make the smallest camcorder and too promote the Memory Stick format Sony is going to come out with a camcorder that only records video to Memory Sticks. It will coincide with the announcement of 2GB Memory Sticks. The camcorder will be the first viable tapeless recording option other than DVD recording camcorders.

A major change will happen with the Digital8 line - I don't know if it will be with pricing or with features, but I believe that we are at a critical point with the Digital8 line. The camcorders have matured and the high end models are providing some pretty strong competition with Sony's low end MiniDV models. I don't know if the change will be in pricing or in feature, but I think Sony is going to do something big to distinguish the Digital8 lines from the rest of the pack. The problem is that the DCR-TRV730 Digital8 is too close to the DCR-TR25 MiniDV camcorder in features. This could of course go the other way with Sony adding more features to the bottom of their MiniDV line - such as more manual control. They may even drop them, which a lot of people are saying, however every year people say that Sony will drop the Digital8s and they don't. No one in the industry has had faith in the line - other than the consumers. It may happen this year because the camcorders are becoming so good and competition for the MiniDV line - but I doubt it because they are so popular.

Sony comes out with DCR-VX3000 - The DCR-VX2000 has been out for a long time and is ripe for a replacement. The CCDs have a low pixel count - in fact the DCR-TRV950, considered a lower model, has a higher pixel count than the DCR-VX2000. I believe Sony will also start to use their large production capacity and corner on the market to begin a price war with Canon against the GL2. Sony has the ability to produce the DCR-VX3000 at relatively cheap prices, presumably at prices cheaper than Canon can produce the GL2. This will allow them to beat out Canon in a price war.

Someone drops analog consumer camcorders - It's bound to happen. One of the manufacturers (my guess is Canon or Sony because they have the cheapest digital camcorders available) is going to stop producing consumer analog camcorders. It's really the next step, and it will truly signal that the digital transition is over.

Canon Optura 300MC makes huge jumps - The next big camcorder (other than maybe the VX3000) is going to be the Optura 300MC. I say this for two reasons. First it's becoming a keystone in Canon's line. You have the cheap ZRs, the expensive GL2 and XL1S, and then the entire middle market rests on the Optura 300MC. Canon's Optura 200MC was very disappointing - they changed very little. This means that Canon better make some huge improvements with the Optura 300MC. I think they will deliver, possibly including huge resolution CCDs or fitting the camcorder into an ultra small package. Combine this with the huge anticipation and the new Optura will be a big announcement.

Canon Pushes Price Barrier with ZR Series - Canon is going to push the price barrier with the ZR series. Following the tradition of the Canon ZRs being the cheapest digital camcorders around, Canon is going to break the $400 barrier and offer the first digital camcorder for under $400 with the low end ZR camcorder.

JVC or Canon create a tapeless camcorder to fight Sony in the size war - This one will basically be aimed at the Japanese market so I don't know if it will even make it to the US. The size war is a big war in Japan. Currently Sony is winning by all indications with their MicroMV line. The line was basically created for the sole purpose of making small camcorders. Without adopting a new tape format (which I don't believe any of the manufacturers have the clout to do other than Sony) they will beat Sony on camcorder size by coming out with a tapeless camcorder that records presumably to SD or MMC cards

Hopes for 2003

Someone comes out with a purely digital camcorder based on the Palm operative system - In conjunction with the tapeless camcorder, I really want someone to come out with a camcorder based on the Palm operating system. That way your camcorder can be an organizer, small computer and video recording machine all in one. Although you don't really need it to be a address book and scheduler in your camcorder, the communication features that are integrated into the Palm OS would integrate well with Sony's Bluetooth. The other application could be video editing. With Palm OS 5 having many multimedia features - it could be possible to have Adobe Premiere or Ulead MediaStudio for the Palm OS. It might not be possible until OS6, but it would be good to have a practical in-camera editing solution.

Everyone adds a zoom ring to new models, or does the hybrid zoom / focus ring like on the DCR-IP220 - This one is pretty self explanatory. I love the hybrid zoom ring / focus ring on the DCR-IP220. I've been begging for the manufacturers to include zoom rings on their camcorders for years - this seems like a practical way to do it - in fact I believe it could be accomplished with just software.